The story of Han xin catches my attention. This guy practiced “taking small insults for greater purpose” in his early life as a nobody. He took insult such as crawling in between legs of a bully who is bigger and stronger. But, that incident was the best thing that happened to him, because it spur him to achieve his ambition. In a way, he uses his anger as a positive energy to achieve success.

One of the most defining moment in Han Xin’s military career is when his talent is not recognized by Xiang Yu, the greatest warrior at that time. Disappointed, he then joined Liu Bang, the future founder of Han Dynasty.  He served both Xiang Yu and Liu Bang, as one of the lowest rank officers. His chance came when many of Liu Bang’s follower deserted him, including Xiao He. However, Xiao He came back on his own accord two days later with Han Xin. Han xin disappointed with Liu Bang, because he was never promoted despite multiple recommendations by Xiao He. Liu Bang then asked Xiao He, “So many general left, but you chased only Han Xin. What’s so special about him?”. This event centered Liu Bang attention on Han Xin,  and allowed Han Xin to become one of the greatest military commander in history. 

In Summary, Han Xin talent is not recognized although he has talent and connection (with Xiao He), however a single event turned his fortune. One single event that turned his life. Some people may call this event, “big break”, or “The Black Swan”  (After the book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb), or for those who are religious “Divine Intervention”. Whatever you called it, the event has several characteristics: unpredictable, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability.  

Fast forward hundreds of years later, in another time (21st century) and place (Singapore), a young man with similar characteristics and situation existed. His name is Yong Yuen Qi. Like young Han Xin, he has high aspirations, highly talented, but no one recognize his talents despite his efforts. Whether Yuen Qi going to be successful man in the future is uncertain, because the “black swan” or “divine intervention” has not appeared in his life.

Some readers might thought that Yuen Qi ought to excel in small matters first, before he can be trusted in big matters (as what the Bible suggested), and therefore fulfill his ambition and talent. If only the world is this simple, i.e. Everyone who execute small (easier) task would ALL be given bigger (and more difficult) task. This is not always the case:

1. Consider Han Xin who proves himself in managing warehouse, but Liu Bang vilified him exactly because he did small matter (although important, but not valued by Liu Bang). Liu Bang said to Xiao He, “he only good in managing warehouse, but war is different issue. Since he is good in managing warehouse, let’s use his talent and ask him to manage warehouse (only).” 

2. Compare this with Yuen Qi, who proves himself in organizing data such that it is more meaningful and presentable. Yuen Qi’s Boss vilified him exactly because Yuen Qi is doing small task. His boss said, “What’s so great about organizing data?…It is simple, everything is done by Microsoft Excel”. No doubt, what his boss said was correct, Excel did most of the job, but Yuen Qi is the one who has organized mind, not Excel. Excel does not run by itself. His boss failed to see this point, and entrusted Yuen Qi with small matters only. 

In the above examples both Liu Bang and Yuen Qi’s Boss fall into narrative fallacy, i.e. the bosses already convinced themselves that what their subordinate did was no big deal, and thus no “ordinary event” can convince them otherwise. Note that Liu Bang ignored Xiao He’s advises to promote Han Xin for doing good job in managing warehouse. Likewise, Yuen Qi’s boss suggested Excel work is no-brainer task that deserves no credit. Tragic. This confirms that the “Black Swan” effect (or “Divine intervention”) is required to change someone’s life (for better life or worse).

Up to this point, those deviant readers will try to argue that Yuen Qi and Han Xin should find out what their bosses values. I almost believe such advice. This argument is invalid, since it contains logical flaws. Assuming both men (Yuen Qi and Han Xin) knew what their superior wanted. They still could not do it, because their superior would not allow them to do it. Can you think of small matter that is valued by your boss?…If that task is valued then it is big matter in the first place.

Those people who experienced that they can discover what their boss wanted or small task lead to bigger task, are probably due to statistical inference. You could be doing many small things, until someday your boss “find out” that one of the small tasks is actually a big task. (The division of small and big tasks are pseudo in real life). Think about the flip side, there are many individuals who keep on doing countless small tasks without being recognized. If your boss do not want to promote you for political reason, or for fear of position, can you do anything to convince him?

The moment your boss recognize your work, or the time when your boss feels that you are ready for bigger responsibility is largely determined by random event, instead of what you know or do. Alas, like Han Xin and Yuen Qi, there is nothing much you and I can do to influence the occurence of positive random event (Good “Black Swan” or Divine Interference). Just do your work diligently, and wait for opportunity to present itself.